Archive for February, 2016

February 15th, 2016

How to Unmake Money in Eulora, Sorta

You’d think losing fifty eight million ECU1 would take some careful planning, or at least a good day’s worth of acting irrationally. Good news, friends! Such a feat can be achieved in a mere two hours, and all it takes is a simple question: would it be better if Eulora’s grand Sunday auctions were doled out piece by piece, rather than in one set? Since specialization is a path evidently sought out by nearly every frequent player –we have a top farmer, a master tinkerer, dedicated miners, and plenty of other niches where dominance is still being decided–, wouldn’t it be great if people could bid only on the items that most appealed to them, without having to shore up a major sum for the whole thing?

The answer, apparently, is no. I mean, it might be fun as a sort of novelty, but the willingness to pay for individual items rather than the agglomeration is laughably low. Fifty eight millionly laughable. That’s right: I, Grenadine Sippycup, took today’s main auction to 140 million ECU to secure the package and, having immediately climbed the podium2 and announced the happy divisioning of the provisioning to those present, found myself repaid with a measly 82 million3 once the gavel’d gaveled its last. Leaving me almost half in the whole, or as the boss so blithely put it, I basically “donated 70mn to s.mg lol”. Well, 58mn. But who’s counting.

What followed was a lengthy, lively ruckus amongst the winners and assorted bidders and bystanders to determine who’d use which spoils, how, and amazingly, by what freshly forged deals. Though Grenadine will weather the experiment4, it’s an interesting, and I suppose merely further, warning to would-be entrepreneurs venturing into Eulora’s easily misleading mists: this market isn’t terribly predictable, and it was never very kind.

Who knows what today’s flutter of butterfly wings will bring to our island hereafter, or who will take a hit or a helping hand along the way.

***

  1. Eulora copper units. Fifty eight bitcents. []
  2. There aren’t really any podiums in Eulora, but I did stand up extra straight, promise. []
  3. For the curious, it breaks down like so: One Three-Pointed Thorn, q31,415, went to Daniel Barron for 70k; Ten Petrified Bubbles q200 went to Mircea Mircescu for 11M; Four hundred Pointedly Odorous Charcoal Conceptions q200 went to Mircea Mircescu for 2.5M; Two hundred Misshaped Ampoule Designs q200 went to Mircea Mircescu for 6.5M; Two hundred Black of Desspayr Recipes q200 went to Daniel Barron for 12M; and One hundred Apprentice Bouquinist Considerations q200 were won by Mircea Mircescu for 50M. Stay tuned to DPB’s Eulora buzz, apparently he got the whole thing on video. []
  4. Insa Allah! []
February 2nd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, January 2016

Report 22. February 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 2; all time: 94 (2x wagers on 47 bets)
Total wagered: 1 BTC; all time: 47 BTC
Total bets resolved: 3; all time: 411
Total calls won: 2; all time: 31
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 10
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 2.27631211, less 3 BTC resolved wagers, for a period loss of 0.72368789, with all-time loss at 3.40250561.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1243, EUR/USD Parity reached before June; .925 on No (bet 10), .075 on Yes (bet 9); status: ongoing.

Notes:
Pretty miserable results this month, dual-pronged: that 1147 lost a few bitcents despite being correctly, and in my opinion rather strongly, called, is an artifact of the piss-poor volume on the lower side; notice the house took a similar hit. Nevertheless, the importance of having a large field of bets trumps either waiting to observe interest (costing weight) or declining to bet based on an assumption interest could be low –which assumptions that I’ve admittedly had are frequently shattered, see for instance that Star Wars box office blowup. As such, I’ll still be working towards that larger field, attempting to pinpoint the prop odds and not the popularity odds.

And prop odds bring us to the second prong of pain this month, that being 1228. This’d be my penultimately worst call (first last place is reserved for that BTC <$200 disaster a year ago). I was confident in the split I made in November; in December I twice considered an attempt to hedge, and twice decided to hold out. My call sucked, and whether it would’ve been improved either by better study or a stronger inclination to hedge is something I’ll keep looking at and thinking about as I push towards a larger field. PC4′s goal isn’t necessarily to win every call, but obviously this sort of thing needs to be a product of bad luck rather than bad analysis if the results are going to come out of the red.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1147, 1220, and 1228. []