Line betting on BitBet, January 2016

February 2nd, 2016

Report 22. February 2nd, 2016

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Accounting url: stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 2; all time: 94 (2x wagers on 47 bets)
Total wagered: 1 BTC; all time: 47 BTC
Total bets resolved: 3; all time: 411
Total calls won: 2; all time: 31
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 10
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 2.27631211, less 3 BTC resolved wagers, for a period loss of 0.72368789, with all-time loss at 3.40250561.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1243, EUR/USD Parity reached before June; .925 on No (bet 10), .075 on Yes (bet 9); status: ongoing.

Pretty miserable results this month, dual-pronged: that 1147 lost a few bitcents despite being correctly, and in my opinion rather strongly, called, is an artifact of the piss-poor volume on the lower side; notice the house took a similar hit. Nevertheless, the importance of having a large field of bets trumps either waiting to observe interest (costing weight) or declining to bet based on an assumption interest could be low --which assumptions that I've admittedly had are frequently shattered, see for instance that Star Wars box office blowup. As such, I'll still be working towards that larger field, attempting to pinpoint the prop odds and not the popularity odds.

And prop odds bring us to the second prong of pain this month, that being 1228. This'd be my penultimately worst call (first last place is reserved for that BTC <$200 disaster a year ago). I was confident in the split I made in November; in December I twice considered an attempt to hedge, and twice decided to hold out. My call sucked, and whether it would've been improved either by better study or a stronger inclination to hedge is something I'll keep looking at and thinking about as I push towards a larger field. PC4's goal isn't necessarily to win every call, but obviously this sort of thing needs to be a product of bad luck rather than bad analysis if the results are going to come out of the red.

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1147, 1220, and 1228. []

One Response to “Line betting on BitBet, January 2016”

  1. [...] losses in P4. ———40.59749439 PC4 + 17.27456032 PC5 + 327.87528669 unallocated reserve. [↩]6 BTC in bets made by PC4 ; [...]

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