Line Betting on BitBet, Closing Out

May 8th, 2016

GPG signed statement

During BitBet's receivership PC4 saw a total of eight refunds (eight wagers on four bets), and one payout on a lost call (for Silver at or over $19/oz before April). This netted 4.23647291 BTC, less the five final BTC in bets resolved, resulting in a loss of 0.76352709, making the final period one of the worst on record, and putting the all-time loss at 4.1275986.

The anticipated closure of MPIF naturally means no more line betting for me. It remains to be seen if the new owner of BitBet will do anything useful with the won assets, but given BitBet as it was operated was the sole functional venue for such activities, I'm inclined to believe its specific operators were an integral and necessary component of that functionality. Though BitBet's underpinners kept the thing going but a few years, and I count its sale as unfortunate, I'm glad to have had the opportunity to use the service both on my own and as manager of PC4.

There were some upsets, such as Blatter's tumble last fall after a five-month waitout, and some brighter points, like last September's DJI call. The overall loss of about 8% is a disappointment for me, and one I would've liked to chase with the greater breadth of bets and longevity of betting I believe was key to the house's superior performance --though perhaps my lost calls were simply too numerous1, or my early blunders too damaging.

In any case, I learned a great deal even if I earned nothing, and I remain indebted to the many folks who lent me their knowledge and time these past two years, directly or not.

  1. Eleven out of forty two, 26% if we discount the five refunds. []

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