Archive for ‘bitcoin’

October 20th, 2016

The Best Things in Eulora are Grimy

Well, thing. There’s just one Grimy Toolkit in game so far, so far as I know, or at any rate it was only released last week. So far as I…look, intelligence in this game is about as easy to come by as talented thieves and honest politicians. Suffice it to say there was an auction for a thing the purpose and value of which were not publicly known, and I won1.

Grimy Toolkit
Looks about as indistinct as you’d expect from a bitter husk of a tool utterly bereft of even the crudest of instructions and entirely intent on obscuring its utility from the feebly throbbing folds of its owner’s tortured mind, no? And the “grimy” apellation doesn’t really suggest anything other than that the kit belongs in this decidedly downcast world, home of disgusting goop, penance clogs, petrified feelings, and so forth. At first I thought it was a gold panning device. But the sea is wide, and I’d have no idea what to do once I got there; so let’s stay in the relative warmth and safety of “town”, that unwelcoming bald spot in the grass populated by quivering humanoid boxes, and fuck around with this thing.

Initial observations: like certain items2 it can be equipped in either hand. Unlike many tools3, it is not a container. That latter bit means using the thing won’t be as easy as putting something else in there and pressing a magic button. But if other tools that are equipped in a hand are any guide, the Grimy Toolkit’ll need some sort of written command to work, just like the mining tools are used via /explore. I was loathe to try that very same command with the new toolkit equipped given the distant memory of someone’s magic bag breaking under that operation. Eulora is a harsh mistress apparently unhappy to be explored by items that don’t meet very strict slag-on-a-stick criteria.

What else is there? Uselessly, /sit and /stand came to mind (I tried anyway). Eulorum has a list!. But it’s mostly procedural stuff for moving around. There’s gotta be a file with an actually complete list of these somewhere though, right? And the command that makes use of this new thing’ll have to be in there, so let’s dig4. Going straight to dev/EuloraV(ersion) seems a safe bet since that’s where juicy stuff like configure lives. Grep it for /sit, no dice, move on. I’m sure plenty of folks would’ve speedily deduced their way to the right file, but I’ve been hittin’ the Crumbly Rock a lot lately as shinohai said and it took me a few minutes of diddling around in directories to find a pretty obvious suspect: cmdusers.cpp in /src/client. Lovely, alphabetized list, certainly some commands I’ve never seen before.

The novel ones were tried (I even proposed marriage to Heina as I moved down the list…alas, I was rebuffed). The novel ones told me pretty much nothing. Until /repair. “You do not seem to have the right equipment for this kind of work,” it said, a suspiciously specific error amidst “Invalid work command”s and unresponsive spittles of syntax. If the toolkit itself isn’t the right equipment for repairing though, what would be? Well sometimes crafting requires the player to wear certain items, like a Chair for the Head…so that and all other such equipment I had in stock was tried on in every permutation possible. Same error message. But there are other wearable pieces of equipment I don’t have, or at least, their blueprints are around. Before commissioning the tinkerers to make me a full set of everything they knew about, I made the one thing I had the blueprint and all the ingredients for: an Early Technicolor Dreamcoat. It happens to call for 24 two-leaf clovers, which would’ve been a bitch if I didn’t have a glut from earlier sacrificing activity. There’s little I love more in Eulora than sacrificing, as it yields either hard-to-find harvestable resources or certain potions that grant skills5, along with special tokens that go for half a million ECU each. But about that toolkit….

Once the dreamcoat was ready (it doesn’t look so technicolored, which I guess is why it’s the “early” version), I put it on, tried /repair again and got…a new error message! Which was slightly encouraging, even if by this point I was imagining myself stuck with the same unusable item in a year’s time. “This item is already perfectly dysfunctional.” I was trying it on my altar, which is the tool used for sacrifice. Mostly because wouldn’t that be awesome, a way to extend the life of that rather rare6 font of unfair advantages? My altar has a healthy durability left yet though; what about another container-tool with such low durability it has no clicks left in it? Coat still on, I gave a decrepit Worn Old Screens7 a try, and behold! They regained about 12k durability points.

The repairing process uses the McGuyver skill, and I’ve yet to determine if higher or lower ranking is ideal for durability points repaired versus Grimy Toolkit decay. I’ll be holding that determination for the day when my altar is broken enough to be saved. And on that day, you’ll most likely also see me gloating, for the toolkit won will recoup its costs at auction in a mere twenty clicks, not counting whatever items I might loot in bonuses. Everything from there is upside, and this in a land where upsides are usually either infinitesimal, illusionary, or both.

***

  1. For 10MN ECU, ten bitcents. []
  2. Pickaxes, adzes, hoes, and magic bags. []
  3. Bandar toolkits, craft tables, worn old screens, samovars, turning wheels, and grotesque altars. []
  4. Stuff like this really makes Eulora shine, I think; whereas pretty much every other game I’ve played would depend somewhat on players not digging around like this, and even attempt to penalize those that did, Eulora outright encourages it. For all I know this was actually imagined as the way to get the mystery demystified []
  5. This is how the mining and lumberjack skills were found this year, via imbibing The Good Hammer and A Butch Man’s Buttered Scones, respectively. []
  6. Public records suggest I have one of three extant, with the other two belonging to Daniel P. Barron. The same fella has some blueprints to make more, but I alone have one of the key ingredients, and we haven’t managed to reach any sort of arrangement, so miserly has the trade made us. []
  7. A tool for shredding recipes to yield maculature, among other things. []
May 8th, 2016

Line Betting on BitBet, Closing Out

GPG signed statement

During BitBet’s receivership PC4 saw a total of eight refunds (eight wagers on four bets), and one payout on a lost call (for Silver at or over $19/oz before April). This netted 4.23647291 BTC, less the five final BTC in bets resolved, resulting in a loss of 0.76352709, making the final period one of the worst on record, and putting the all-time loss at 4.1275986.

The anticipated closure of MPIF naturally means no more line betting for me. It remains to be seen if the new owner of BitBet will do anything useful with the won assets, but given BitBet as it was operated was the sole functional venue for such activities, I’m inclined to believe its specific operators were an integral and necessary component of that functionality. Though BitBet’s underpinners kept the thing going but a few years, and I count its sale as unfortunate, I’m glad to have had the opportunity to use the service both on my own and as manager of PC4.

There were some upsets, such as Blatter’s tumble last fall after a five-month waitout, and some brighter points, like last September’s DJI call. The overall loss of about 8% is a disappointment for me, and one I would’ve liked to chase with the greater breadth of bets and longevity of betting I believe was key to the house’s superior performance –though perhaps my lost calls were simply too numerous1, or my early blunders too damaging.

In any case, I learned a great deal even if I earned nothing, and I remain indebted to the many folks who lent me their knowledge and time these past two years, directly or not.

  1. Eleven out of forty two, 26% if we discount the five refunds. []
April 3rd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, February and March 2016

Report 23. Joint statement, April 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 94 (2x wagers on 47 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 47 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 421
Total calls won: 1; all time: 32
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 10
Total calls pending: 5 (10 wagers on 5 bets)
Total amount won: 1.03843410, less 1 BTC resolved wagers, for a period gain of .03843410, with all-time loss at 3.36407151.

Outstanding wagers: 5 BTC

Notes:
In light of BitBet’s turmoil over the past month, it looks unlikely that PC4 will be able to keep operating, and as such no new bets have been placed. As noted, there are currently 5 BTC in bets still outstanding, none of which have actually had their resolution criteria met, which should mean they’ll be refunded, assuming BitBet’s receivership and wind-down are well-executed.

It’s been a bumpy ride, with ultimate results obviously less than stellar, and whether the line betting idea has its conclusion is still somewhat unknown to me; certainly a greater sample size would’ve better aided any sense of certainty. Assuming the profit center does indeed close with BitBet itself, I’ll be putting together a post-mortem to see what can be seen.

***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1208. []
February 15th, 2016

How to Unmake Money in Eulora, Sorta

You’d think losing fifty eight million ECU1 would take some careful planning, or at least a good day’s worth of acting irrationally. Good news, friends! Such a feat can be achieved in a mere two hours, and all it takes is a simple question: would it be better if Eulora’s grand Sunday auctions were doled out piece by piece, rather than in one set? Since specialization is a path evidently sought out by nearly every frequent player –we have a top farmer, a master tinkerer, dedicated miners, and plenty of other niches where dominance is still being decided–, wouldn’t it be great if people could bid only on the items that most appealed to them, without having to shore up a major sum for the whole thing?

The answer, apparently, is no. I mean, it might be fun as a sort of novelty, but the willingness to pay for individual items rather than the agglomeration is laughably low. Fifty eight millionly laughable. That’s right: I, Grenadine Sippycup, took today’s main auction to 140 million ECU to secure the package and, having immediately climbed the podium2 and announced the happy divisioning of the provisioning to those present, found myself repaid with a measly 82 million3 once the gavel’d gaveled its last. Leaving me almost half in the whole, or as the boss so blithely put it, I basically “donated 70mn to s.mg lol”. Well, 58mn. But who’s counting.

What followed was a lengthy, lively ruckus amongst the winners and assorted bidders and bystanders to determine who’d use which spoils, how, and amazingly, by what freshly forged deals. Though Grenadine will weather the experiment4, it’s an interesting, and I suppose merely further, warning to would-be entrepreneurs venturing into Eulora’s easily misleading mists: this market isn’t terribly predictable, and it was never very kind.

Who knows what today’s flutter of butterfly wings will bring to our island hereafter, or who will take a hit or a helping hand along the way.

***

  1. Eulora copper units. Fifty eight bitcents. []
  2. There aren’t really any podiums in Eulora, but I did stand up extra straight, promise. []
  3. For the curious, it breaks down like so: One Three-Pointed Thorn, q31,415, went to Daniel Barron for 70k; Ten Petrified Bubbles q200 went to Mircea Mircescu for 11M; Four hundred Pointedly Odorous Charcoal Conceptions q200 went to Mircea Mircescu for 2.5M; Two hundred Misshaped Ampoule Designs q200 went to Mircea Mircescu for 6.5M; Two hundred Black of Desspayr Recipes q200 went to Daniel Barron for 12M; and One hundred Apprentice Bouquinist Considerations q200 were won by Mircea Mircescu for 50M. Stay tuned to DPB’s Eulora buzz, apparently he got the whole thing on video. []
  4. Insa Allah! []
February 2nd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, January 2016

Report 22. February 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 2; all time: 94 (2x wagers on 47 bets)
Total wagered: 1 BTC; all time: 47 BTC
Total bets resolved: 3; all time: 411
Total calls won: 2; all time: 31
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 10
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 2.27631211, less 3 BTC resolved wagers, for a period loss of 0.72368789, with all-time loss at 3.40250561.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1243, EUR/USD Parity reached before June; .925 on No (bet 10), .075 on Yes (bet 9); status: ongoing.

Notes:
Pretty miserable results this month, dual-pronged: that 1147 lost a few bitcents despite being correctly, and in my opinion rather strongly, called, is an artifact of the piss-poor volume on the lower side; notice the house took a similar hit. Nevertheless, the importance of having a large field of bets trumps either waiting to observe interest (costing weight) or declining to bet based on an assumption interest could be low –which assumptions that I’ve admittedly had are frequently shattered, see for instance that Star Wars box office blowup. As such, I’ll still be working towards that larger field, attempting to pinpoint the prop odds and not the popularity odds.

And prop odds bring us to the second prong of pain this month, that being 1228. This’d be my penultimately worst call (first last place is reserved for that BTC <$200 disaster a year ago). I was confident in the split I made in November; in December I twice considered an attempt to hedge, and twice decided to hold out. My call sucked, and whether it would’ve been improved either by better study or a stronger inclination to hedge is something I’ll keep looking at and thinking about as I push towards a larger field. PC4′s goal isn’t necessarily to win every call, but obviously this sort of thing needs to be a product of bad luck rather than bad analysis if the results are going to come out of the red.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1147, 1220, and 1228. []
January 2nd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, December 2015

Report 21. January 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 92 (2x wagers on 46 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 46 BTC
Total bets resolved: 0; all time: 38
Total calls won: 0; all time: 29
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 9
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)
Total amount won: 0, less 0 BTC resolved wagers, for a period of stasis, with all-time loss still at 2.67881772.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

Notes:
Obviously a couple of placed bets were involved in the yearly changeover; they’ll be reported and discussed next month as per usual. May 2016 be faster & fuller.
***

December 31st, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, November 2015

Report 20. December 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 4; all time: 92 (2x wagers on 46 bets)
Total wagered: 2 BTC; all time: 46 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 381
Total calls won: 1; all time: 29
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 9
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)
Total amount won: 1.39759709, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period gain of .39759709; to date, 35.32118228 won less 38 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 2.67881772.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1220, Gold to drop under $1000 before Jan 2016; .895 on No (bet 6), .121 on Yes (bet 6); status: ongoing.
2. Bet 1228, Bitcoin Network Hits 1 Exahash; .879 on No (bet 7), .105 on Yes (bet 7); status: ongoing.

Notes: Ponta’s misfortune made for a slightly sweetened November.
Update December 31st 2015: This post was originally published December 2nd and has been manually restored post-apocalyptically.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1165 []
November 2nd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, October 2015

Report 19. November 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 88 (2x wagers on 44 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 44 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 371
Total calls won: 0; all time: 28
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 9
Total calls pending: 7 (14 wagers on 7 bets)
Total amount won: 0.60813385, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period loss of 0.39186615; to date, 33.92358519 won less 37 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 3.07641481.

Outstanding wagers: 7 BTC

Notes: Blatter’s ousting obviously could’ve been a much bigger hit, though the ~40 bitcents lost puts this adventure back over three under, which is disappointing. At any rate, looking towards the end of the calendar year, two of the currently open bets will close, and hopefully more sound betting opportunities will arise as 2016 approaches. I remain rather skeptical re bets on BTC/USD given the former’s talent for wild mood swings, though I think some daring with those may need to be employed if preferable bets don’t start flooding the radar.

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1154 []
October 3rd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, September 2015

Report 18. October 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 6; all time: 88 (2x wagers on 44 bets)
Total wagered: 3 BTC; all time: 44 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 361
Total calls won: 1; all time: 28
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 8
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)
Total amount won: 1.25078614, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period gain of .25078614; to date, 33.315451342 won less 36 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 2.68454866.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1206, Donald Trump gets Republican Nomination; .785 on No (bet 6), .215 on Yes (bet 5); status: ongoing.
2. Bet 1200, Silver at or over $19/oz before April; .82 on Yes (bet 9), .18 on No (bet 8); status: ongoing.
3. Bet 1208, Rand Paul will be Republicans’ 2016 Presidential Nominee; .988 on No (bet 5), .012 on Yes (bet 4); status: ongoing.

Notes: Previous month’s gain ~doubled again, seems like the right track even if it’s a slow one. Much fun was had placing primary wagers (those that seemed callable at this point, anyway). Also, true story re that sluttiest of bets, 1154: I was in a cab earlier today, and mid-conversation with my fellow passenger I had the driver turn up the radio volume, for I’d heard “El Presidente de FIFA” something or the other. It wasn’t repeated, and all aghast I asked the driver if that loon had finally, actually, left his office. “Si!” he said. So I looked it up, expecting the final blow on that call to come in, but check it out, he still won’t make a move, and somehow it’s still a news item.

For all I know at this point he’ll take off tomorrow just to be a dick, but today it’s pretty hilarious.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1188 []
  2. What a beaut of a number, eh? []
September 2nd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, August 2015

Report 17. September 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 2; all time: 82 (2x wagers on 41 bets)
Total wagered: 1 BTC; all time: 41 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 351
Total calls won: 1; all time: 27
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 8
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 1.11826184, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period gain of .11826184; to date, 32.06466520 won less 35 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time
loss of 2.9353348.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1188, Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) to drop below 14,000 before 18th September; .988 on No (bet 5), .012 on Yes (bet 4); status: ongoing.

Notes: About twice last month’s gain for half the resolved wagers, I like it. Also note Blatter still won’t come out and see his shadow, so 1154 remains in limbo. I’m hoping at this point he muses about it equally ineffectively for the rest of the year.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1142 []