Archive for ‘F.MPIF’

May 8th, 2016

Line Betting on BitBet, Closing Out

GPG signed statement

During BitBet’s receivership PC4 saw a total of eight refunds (eight wagers on four bets), and one payout on a lost call (for Silver at or over $19/oz before April). This netted 4.23647291 BTC, less the five final BTC in bets resolved, resulting in a loss of 0.76352709, making the final period one of the worst on record, and putting the all-time loss at 4.1275986.

The anticipated closure of MPIF naturally means no more line betting for me. It remains to be seen if the new owner of BitBet will do anything useful with the won assets, but given BitBet as it was operated was the sole functional venue for such activities, I’m inclined to believe its specific operators were an integral and necessary component of that functionality. Though BitBet’s underpinners kept the thing going but a few years, and I count its sale as unfortunate, I’m glad to have had the opportunity to use the service both on my own and as manager of PC4.

There were some upsets, such as Blatter’s tumble last fall after a five-month waitout, and some brighter points, like last September’s DJI call. The overall loss of about 8% is a disappointment for me, and one I would’ve liked to chase with the greater breadth of bets and longevity of betting I believe was key to the house’s superior performance –though perhaps my lost calls were simply too numerous1, or my early blunders too damaging.

In any case, I learned a great deal even if I earned nothing, and I remain indebted to the many folks who lent me their knowledge and time these past two years, directly or not.

  1. Eleven out of forty two, 26% if we discount the five refunds. []
April 3rd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, February and March 2016

Report 23. Joint statement, April 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 94 (2x wagers on 47 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 47 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 421
Total calls won: 1; all time: 32
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 10
Total calls pending: 5 (10 wagers on 5 bets)
Total amount won: 1.03843410, less 1 BTC resolved wagers, for a period gain of .03843410, with all-time loss at 3.36407151.

Outstanding wagers: 5 BTC

Notes:
In light of BitBet’s turmoil over the past month, it looks unlikely that PC4 will be able to keep operating, and as such no new bets have been placed. As noted, there are currently 5 BTC in bets still outstanding, none of which have actually had their resolution criteria met, which should mean they’ll be refunded, assuming BitBet’s receivership and wind-down are well-executed.

It’s been a bumpy ride, with ultimate results obviously less than stellar, and whether the line betting idea has its conclusion is still somewhat unknown to me; certainly a greater sample size would’ve better aided any sense of certainty. Assuming the profit center does indeed close with BitBet itself, I’ll be putting together a post-mortem to see what can be seen.

***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1208. []
February 2nd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, January 2016

Report 22. February 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 2; all time: 94 (2x wagers on 47 bets)
Total wagered: 1 BTC; all time: 47 BTC
Total bets resolved: 3; all time: 411
Total calls won: 2; all time: 31
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 10
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 2.27631211, less 3 BTC resolved wagers, for a period loss of 0.72368789, with all-time loss at 3.40250561.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1243, EUR/USD Parity reached before June; .925 on No (bet 10), .075 on Yes (bet 9); status: ongoing.

Notes:
Pretty miserable results this month, dual-pronged: that 1147 lost a few bitcents despite being correctly, and in my opinion rather strongly, called, is an artifact of the piss-poor volume on the lower side; notice the house took a similar hit. Nevertheless, the importance of having a large field of bets trumps either waiting to observe interest (costing weight) or declining to bet based on an assumption interest could be low –which assumptions that I’ve admittedly had are frequently shattered, see for instance that Star Wars box office blowup. As such, I’ll still be working towards that larger field, attempting to pinpoint the prop odds and not the popularity odds.

And prop odds bring us to the second prong of pain this month, that being 1228. This’d be my penultimately worst call (first last place is reserved for that BTC <$200 disaster a year ago). I was confident in the split I made in November; in December I twice considered an attempt to hedge, and twice decided to hold out. My call sucked, and whether it would’ve been improved either by better study or a stronger inclination to hedge is something I’ll keep looking at and thinking about as I push towards a larger field. PC4′s goal isn’t necessarily to win every call, but obviously this sort of thing needs to be a product of bad luck rather than bad analysis if the results are going to come out of the red.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1147, 1220, and 1228. []
January 2nd, 2016

Line betting on BitBet, December 2015

Report 21. January 2nd, 2016

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 92 (2x wagers on 46 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 46 BTC
Total bets resolved: 0; all time: 38
Total calls won: 0; all time: 29
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 9
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)
Total amount won: 0, less 0 BTC resolved wagers, for a period of stasis, with all-time loss still at 2.67881772.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

Notes:
Obviously a couple of placed bets were involved in the yearly changeover; they’ll be reported and discussed next month as per usual. May 2016 be faster & fuller.
***

December 31st, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, November 2015

Report 20. December 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 4; all time: 92 (2x wagers on 46 bets)
Total wagered: 2 BTC; all time: 46 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 381
Total calls won: 1; all time: 29
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 9
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)
Total amount won: 1.39759709, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period gain of .39759709; to date, 35.32118228 won less 38 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 2.67881772.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1220, Gold to drop under $1000 before Jan 2016; .895 on No (bet 6), .121 on Yes (bet 6); status: ongoing.
2. Bet 1228, Bitcoin Network Hits 1 Exahash; .879 on No (bet 7), .105 on Yes (bet 7); status: ongoing.

Notes: Ponta’s misfortune made for a slightly sweetened November.
Update December 31st 2015: This post was originally published December 2nd and has been manually restored post-apocalyptically.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1165 []
November 2nd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, October 2015

Report 19. November 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 88 (2x wagers on 44 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 44 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 371
Total calls won: 0; all time: 28
Total calls lost: 1; all time: 9
Total calls pending: 7 (14 wagers on 7 bets)
Total amount won: 0.60813385, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period loss of 0.39186615; to date, 33.92358519 won less 37 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 3.07641481.

Outstanding wagers: 7 BTC

Notes: Blatter’s ousting obviously could’ve been a much bigger hit, though the ~40 bitcents lost puts this adventure back over three under, which is disappointing. At any rate, looking towards the end of the calendar year, two of the currently open bets will close, and hopefully more sound betting opportunities will arise as 2016 approaches. I remain rather skeptical re bets on BTC/USD given the former’s talent for wild mood swings, though I think some daring with those may need to be employed if preferable bets don’t start flooding the radar.

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1154 []
October 3rd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, September 2015

Report 18. October 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 6; all time: 88 (2x wagers on 44 bets)
Total wagered: 3 BTC; all time: 44 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 361
Total calls won: 1; all time: 28
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 8
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)
Total amount won: 1.25078614, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period gain of .25078614; to date, 33.315451342 won less 36 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 2.68454866.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1206, Donald Trump gets Republican Nomination; .785 on No (bet 6), .215 on Yes (bet 5); status: ongoing.
2. Bet 1200, Silver at or over $19/oz before April; .82 on Yes (bet 9), .18 on No (bet 8); status: ongoing.
3. Bet 1208, Rand Paul will be Republicans’ 2016 Presidential Nominee; .988 on No (bet 5), .012 on Yes (bet 4); status: ongoing.

Notes: Previous month’s gain ~doubled again, seems like the right track even if it’s a slow one. Much fun was had placing primary wagers (those that seemed callable at this point, anyway). Also, true story re that sluttiest of bets, 1154: I was in a cab earlier today, and mid-conversation with my fellow passenger I had the driver turn up the radio volume, for I’d heard “El Presidente de FIFA” something or the other. It wasn’t repeated, and all aghast I asked the driver if that loon had finally, actually, left his office. “Si!” he said. So I looked it up, expecting the final blow on that call to come in, but check it out, he still won’t make a move, and somehow it’s still a news item.

For all I know at this point he’ll take off tomorrow just to be a dick, but today it’s pretty hilarious.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1188 []
  2. What a beaut of a number, eh? []
September 2nd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, August 2015

Report 17. September 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 2; all time: 82 (2x wagers on 41 bets)
Total wagered: 1 BTC; all time: 41 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 351
Total calls won: 1; all time: 27
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 8
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 1.11826184, less 1 BTC resolved wager, for a period gain of .11826184; to date, 32.06466520 won less 35 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time
loss of 2.9353348.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1188, Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) to drop below 14,000 before 18th September; .988 on No (bet 5), .012 on Yes (bet 4); status: ongoing.

Notes: About twice last month’s gain for half the resolved wagers, I like it. Also note Blatter still won’t come out and see his shadow, so 1154 remains in limbo. I’m hoping at this point he muses about it equally ineffectively for the rest of the year.
***

  1. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1142 []
August 2nd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, July 2015

Report 16. August 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement
Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 0; all time: 801 (2x wagers on 40 bets)
Total wagered: 0 BTC; all time: 40 BTC
Total bets resolved: 2; all time: 342
Total calls won: 2; all time: 26
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 8
Total calls pending: 6 (12 wagers on 6 bets)
Total amount won: 2.0569229, less 2 BTC resolved wagers, for a period gain of .0569229; to date, 30.94640336 won less 34 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 3.05359664.

Outstanding wagers: 6 BTC

Notes: A snooze of a month. The win on a Yes was a thing to behold, given BitBet’s strong inclination towards props that end on the red side of things. Of course, 1133‘s “win” ate well into the prize, cementing that note in April’s report about the danger of being too short on the right side. I’m pleased so far with the improvement of precision in wagers, even if they’ve yet to wipe out that ugly ATL.
***

  1. Note: this figure showed one wager too many in June and July’s reports. []
  2. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1140, 1133 []
July 2nd, 2015

Line betting on BitBet, June 2015

Report 15. July 2nd, 2015

GPG signed statement1

Accounting url: bitbet.us stats/18bCNXjdT2NUjcip6KdbFR5EEFAu3oTgTq

Total wagers made: 4; all time: 81 (2x wagers on 40 bets)
Total wagered: 2 BTC; all time: 40 BTC
Total bets resolved: 1; all time: 322
Total calls won: 1; all time: 24
Total calls lost: 0; all time: 8
Total calls pending: 8 (16 wagers on 8 bets)3
Total amount won: 1.09046461, less 1 BTC resolved wagers, for a period gain of .09046461; to date, 28.88948046 won less 32 BTC resolved wagers, for an all-time loss of 3.11051954.

Outstanding wagers: 8 BTC

New bets this period:
1. Bet 1154, FIFA President Sepp Blatter out of office in 2015; .85 on No (bet 6), .15 on Yes (bet 5); status: ongoing4.
2. Bet 1165, Victor Ponta to remain Romania’s Prime Minister in 2015; .94 on No (bet 5), .06 on Yes (bet 4); status: ongoing.

Notes: US Presidential primary bets should start opening up this month, looking forward to it.
***

  1. As per jurov’s suggestion I’ll be signing like so from now on. []
  2. Bets resolved from earlier placing periods: 1074 []
  3. Note: last month’s pending count was erroneously reported as 8; it should have been 7. Derp. []
  4. This one’s been a rollercoaster ride; guy broke his well-established form and “announced” he’d leave, now he’s saying he never meant he’d resign. I’m very curious how this’ll end up, and how long it’ll take, at that []